Originally published by The Australian
27.05.2026
When the smokestacks came down at the Liddell Power Station in the Hunter Valley on Tuesday, it was a visual snapshot of where we are with power. The ducks captured on a livestream video of the event didn’t stir as the towers fell. But, unlike the ducks, energy policymakers led by COP joint president Chris Bowen are being forced to paddle furiously below the surface.
The dynamite has arrived too soon because the renewable energy replacement is failing to show up. As a result, promised power price cuts for electricity users have been revised back up. The renewable energy build-out has stalled to its lowest point in a decade, and Mr Bowen says spending $150m on preparations for a meeting designed to give more billions to developing nations represents good value for taxpayers.
The Liddell station is being replaced by owner AGL with an Energy Hub featuring a 500MW grid-scale battery and other renewable energy infrastructure.
For a reality check, when the demolition charges went off at Liddell, NSW was getting 77 per cent of its electricity from black coal. Six per cent was coming from hydro, 12 per cent from solar and only 4 per cent from wind. Gas and battery power were supplying 1 per cent each. For the 48 hours prior to demolition, black coal had contributed more than 80 per cent of NSW supply. The story for the National Energy Market, which stretches from Queensland to South Australia, was the same. Black and brown coal were supplying 64 per cent of demand, gas was supplying 5 per cent, with solar supplying 13 per cent, wind 11 per cent and battery 1 per cent.
Despite the rhetoric, this is an energy transition that is failing to transition. Statistics that show renewable energy supplies 43 per cent of total electricity overlook the periods where it fails to deliver anything of the sort. Blaming the unreliability of coal in the system for price spikes is another example of doublespeak, given it is the march to renewables that has ensured coal plants are poorly maintained pending closure.
As critics have warned, the proof is now apparent that the first wave of renewables is the easy bit in a task that becomes more difficult as penetration increases. The latest Clean Energy Council figures show just 2.3 gigawatts of new renewable energy generation reached financial closure in 2025, down 46 per cent from 4.4GW the previous year. Onshore wind-powered generation reaching financial closure dropped 59 per cent to 857MW from 2.2GW, while utility-scale solar generation commitments fell 29 per cent to 1.4GW from 2GW over the 12-month period.
“We need to be honest about where we are, and where we need to be,” CEC chief executive Jackie Trad said. “The number that demands attention is going in the wrong direction: financial commitments for large-scale wind and solar (are) at a decade low.”
Labor’s target of 82 per cent renewable energy by 2030 requires annual investment commitments of 6GW to 7GW of new-generation capacity – almost three times the current rate. The federal government has agreed to underwrite 40GW of new clean-energy capacity by 2030 under its Capacity Investment Scheme.
But selling permits for government largesse is not the same thing as building capacity. Successful bidders now want to renegotiate terms because the taxpayer subsidies that underwrite risk and provide a floor price are no longer considered generous enough. The federal budget does not even attempt to assess what the scheme might cost.
Meanwhile, as Mr Bowen continues to say that wind and solar are the cheapest available option, promised price cuts for electricity users have been unwound by the Australian Energy Regulator in its final determination. In SA, a forecast saving for consumers of 1.3 per cent has become a price rise of 1.4 per cent. In Queensland and regional NSW, residential cuts will not be as big as they were. The change reflects tougher conditions in the wholesale market as well as the concerns of power companies about the likely cost of infrastructure upgrades in the future.
The falling towers at Liddell are a visual demonstration of what is happening to Australia’s energy network. Hopes that artificial intelligence will save the day with mandated investments in renewable energy misread the fact they too need power 24/7 and ignore what is really going on.
